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Презентация на тему Risk premium. Adjustment of risk

People try to avoid risk2
Investors and managers demonstrates risk aversion in different ways1 People try to avoid risk2 Why managers invest in risky projects?3 RISK PREMIUM4 I want to have a compensation not only for the use of win – 1000$, defeat – 1000$Negative expected value => investor will not 7win – 1800$, defeat – 1000$ defeat    winRevenueUtility of revenue Risk premium Business risk associated with a firm decision about investment8 9Business risk is always there - no business does not guarantee success Within one business direction, the investor usually faced with higher business risk On the other hand, the Financial risk is determined by the financial decisions of the firm (the risk of possible insolvency)11 The income of the company must first of all go to debt service12 Adjustment of risk14 Discounted value of future profitDegree of riskValuation model:The present value of the Methods of risk account :The rate method, corrected for riskMethod of certainty equivalent16 The rate method, corrected for riskThe rate, corrected for risk-the required rate Method of certainty equivalentThe present value of the cash flow associated with The coefficient of certainty equivalent α is a number between 0 and And most often for any specific period:20Risk is anyway evaluated by one East-West Trading Company
Слайды презентации

Слайд 2 People try to avoid risk
2

People try to avoid risk2

Слайд 3 Why managers invest in risky projects?
3

Why managers invest in risky projects?3

Слайд 4 RISK PREMIUM
4

RISK PREMIUM4

Слайд 5 I want to have a compensation not only

I want to have a compensation not only for the use

for the use of my money, but for the

risk to remain without them!

… a higher rate of profit, if there is a risk…

5


Слайд 6 win – 1000$, defeat – 1000$
Negative expected value

win – 1000$, defeat – 1000$Negative expected value => investor will

=> investor will not bet
6

Utility
Revenue
Utility of revenue


win
defeat





Слайд 7 7
win – 1800$, defeat – 1000$


defeat

7win – 1800$, defeat – 1000$ defeat   winRevenueUtility of revenue Risk premium


win
Revenue
Utility of revenue


Risk premium



Слайд 8 Business risk associated with a firm decision about

Business risk associated with a firm decision about investment8

investment
8


Слайд 9 9
Business risk is always there - no business

9Business risk is always there - no business does not guarantee success

does not guarantee success


Слайд 10 Within one business direction, the investor usually faced

Within one business direction, the investor usually faced with higher business

with higher business risk in the newly created company


Слайд 11 On the other hand, the "old" company, products

On the other hand, the

or methods of entrepreneurship which are outdated, can have

high enough degree of business risk

10




Слайд 12 Financial risk is determined by the financial decisions

Financial risk is determined by the financial decisions of the firm (the risk of possible insolvency)11

of the firm (the risk of possible insolvency)
11


Слайд 13 The income of the company must first of

The income of the company must first of all go to debt service12

all go to debt service
12


Слайд 14 Adjustment of risk
14

Adjustment of risk14

Слайд 15 Discounted value of future profit
Degree of risk
Valuation model:
The

Discounted value of future profitDegree of riskValuation model:The present value of

present value of the cash flow associated with investments
Estimated

profit

The required rate of profit, taking into account the level of business and financial risk

The number of periods

The amount of initial investment



15


Слайд 16 Methods of risk account :
The rate method, corrected

Methods of risk account :The rate method, corrected for riskMethod of certainty equivalent16

for risk
Method of certainty equivalent
16


Слайд 17 The rate method, corrected for risk
The rate, corrected

The rate method, corrected for riskThe rate, corrected for risk-the required

for risk
-the required rate of profit from prospective investments

after due consideration of the existing risk

17

Ех:


Слайд 18 Method of certainty equivalent
The present value of the

Method of certainty equivalentThe present value of the cash flow associated

cash flow associated with investments
The coefficient of certainty equivalent

for period t

The expected cash flow in the period t at risk

Risk-free rate of profit or the interest rate for calculating the value of money

The number of periods

The amount of initial investment

Free from the risk equivalent amount of cash in the period t







18


Слайд 19 The coefficient of certainty equivalent α is a

The coefficient of certainty equivalent α is a number between 0

number between 0 and 1, which reflects the function

of risk of the decision maker.

It varies inversely with the degree of risk
(the higher the risk, the lower should be the factor)
α = 1 –the project is risk free
α = 0 – the project is too risky
to expect profit

Free from the risk equivalent amount of cash in the period t

The expected cash flow in the period t at risk

19

Ех:


Слайд 20 And most often for any specific period:

20
Risk is

And most often for any specific period:20Risk is anyway evaluated by

anyway evaluated by one Manager or team of experts


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