Презентация на тему Investment decision. Rules. (Lecture 6)

decisions include:

 Typically, a go or no-go decision on a

product, service, facility, or activity of the firm.
Requires sound estimates of the timing and amount of cash flow for the proposal.
The capital budgeting model has a predetermined accept or reject criterion.

FIN 3121 Principles of Finance

Decisions
Payback period
Discounted payback period (Modified from payback period)
Net

present value (NPV)
Profitability index (PI, modified from NPV)
Internal rate of return (IRR)

FIN 3121 Principles of Finance

to recover the initial investment.
If the payback period is

of an acceptable length of time to the firm, the project will be selected.
When comparing two or more projects, the projects with shorter payback periods are preferred. However, accepted projects should meet the target payback period, which should be set in advance.

FIN 3121 Principles of Finance

invest in a project that has a $3700 initial

investment.
It is estimated that a project will provide regular cash inflows of $1000 in a year 1, $2,000 in a year 2, $1500 in a year 3, and $1000 in a year4.
If the company has a target payback period of 3 years, do you recommend that this project be accepted?

FIN 3121 Principles of Finance

major flaws:

It ignores all cash flow after the initial

cash outflow has been recovered.
It ignores the time value of money.

FIN 3121 Principles of Finance

modified version of the payback method.
It calculates the

time it takes to recover the initial investment in current or discounted currency.
The discounted payback method recognizes the time value of money.
However, it does not recognize cash returns in excess of the calculated payback period.

FIN 3121 Principles of Finance

Finance

flows from a project back to time 0 using

an appropriate discount rate, r:




A positive NPV implies that the project is adding value to the firm’s bottom line. Therefore, when comparing projects, the higher the NPV the better.

FIN 3121 Principles of Finance

Illustration
A small commercial

property is for sale near your university. Given its location, you believe a student oriented business would be very successful there. You consider an option of opening Coffee Shop and you come up with the following cash flow estimates:




Calculate NPV of this project and indicate whether the investment should be undertaken or not. Cost of capital is 5%.

FIN 3121 Principles of Finance

should not be undertaken
as NPV is negative.




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Principles of Finance

useful for independent as well as mutually exclusive projects.

 
A choice between mutually exclusive projects arises when: 
There is a need for only one project, and both projects can fulfill that need.
There is a scarce resource that both projects need, and by using it in one project, it is not available for the second. 
NPV rule considers whether or not discounted cash inflows outweigh the cash outflows emanating from a project. Higher positive NPVs are preferred to lower or negative NPVs.

FIN 3121 Principles of Finance

Projects
Illustration
You have a dilemma: to open a coffee

shop or a book store. In either case, the cost of capital will be 10%. The relevant annual cash flows with each option are as follows:

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Projects
Coffee Shop




Book Store






Thus, you will better off if you

invest in a Book Store

FIN 3121 Principles of Finance

of Projects
Firms often have to decide between alternatives that

are:
mutually exclusive,
cost different amounts,
have different useful lives, and
require replacement once their productive lives run out.
 
In such cases, using the traditional NPV (single life analysis) as the evaluation criterion can lead to incorrect decisions, since the cash flows will change once replacement occurs.

FIN 3121 Principles of Finance

of Projects
Under the NPV approach, mutually exclusive projects with

unequal lives can be analyzed by using one of the following modified approaches: 
Replacement Chain Method
Equivalent Annual Annuity (EAA) Approach

FIN 3121 Principles of Finance

of Projects
Illustration
  Let’s say that there are two tanning

beds available, one lasts for 3 years while the other for 4 years.
The owner realizes that she will have to replace either of these two beds with new ones when they are at the end of their productive lives, as she plans on being in the business for a long time.

FIN 3121 Principles of Finance

of Projects
Illustration (cont.)
Using the cash flows listed below, and

a cost of capital of 10%, help the owner decide which of the two tanning beds she should choose.

FIN 3121 Principles of Finance

of Projects
3.3.1. REPLACEMENT CHAIN METHOD
 
STEP 1. Calculate the NPV

of each tanning bed for a single life

FIN 3121 Principles of Finance

Example
3.3.1. REPLACEMENT CHAIN METHOD
 
STEP 2. Calculate the Total NPV

of each bed using 3 repetitions for A and 4 for B, i.e. We assume Bed A will be replaced at the end of Years 4 and 8, lasting 12 years. We also assume Bed B will be replaced in Years 3, 6, and 9, also lasting for 12 years in total. 
We assume that the annual cash flows are the same for each replication.






Decision: Bed B with its higher Total NPV should be chosen.

FIN 3121 Principles of Finance

of Projects
3.3.2 Equivalent Annual Annuity (EAA) method
  The

equivalent annual annuity (EAA) approach calculates the constant annual cash flow generated by a project over its lifespan if it was an annuity. The present value of the constant annual cash flows is exactly equal to the project's net present value (NPV).




The project with a higher EAA
is considered the best choice

FIN 3121 Principles of Finance

Example
3.3.2 EAA Method

EAA bed a = NPVA/(PVIFA,10%,4) = $10,332.62/(3.1698)

= $3,259.56 

EAA bed b = NPVB /(PVIFA,10%,3) = $8,367.21/(2.48685)
= $3,364.58

Decision:
Bed B’s EAA = $3,364.58 > Bed A’s EAA = $3,259.56
? Accept Bed B

FIN 3121 Principles of Finance

value created per dollar of an investment.

Rules of Profitability Index
If PI > 1, Good Investment
If PI < 1, Bad Investment

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for an investment, calculate the profitability index.
The required

rate of return is 8%

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a project




Step 2. Compute PI

For every

$1 invested in this project, the total value created is $1.285. Therefore, we have a net profit of 1.285 - 1 = $0.285 per every dollar invested.

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between NPV and PI.

Here it is:

If Profitability Index

> 1, NPV is Positive (+)
If Profitability Index < 1, NPV is Negative (-)

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The Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is

the discount rate that forces the sum of all the discounted cash flows from a project to equal 0 (discounted future cash flows = starting investment amount).


The decision rule that would be applied is as follows:
Accept if IRR > hurdle rate (required rate of return)
Reject if IRR < hurdle rate (required rate of return)

Note that the IRR is measured as a percent, while the NPV is measured in dollars.
Hurdle rate is the minimum acceptable rate of return that an investor or firm should earn on a project, given its riskiness.

FIN 3121 Principles of Finance