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Презентация на тему Structuring. Transaction Framework

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AgendaOverviewPerspectiveCreating the structureCovenantsAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008
Structuring Joseph V. RizziAmsterdam Institute of FinanceMay, 2008Copyright © Joe Rizzi, 2008 AgendaOverviewPerspectiveCreating the structureCovenantsAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008 OverviewAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008 Transaction FrameworkStrategic Issues Do I make the acquisition?Valuation How much do I Transaction and Structuring OverviewAccountingTaxCorporateLawSecuritiesRegulatory and AntitrustTransaction Environment ContractStructuring EnvironmentBusinessPlanTransactionCharacteristicsFinancialPreferencesMarketConditionsDealCompetingBiddersCreditors RightsAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008 Structuring EnvironmentFinancial Preferences:DilutionControlRisk ToleranceFlexibilityExit NeedsMarket Conditions:DepthPricing RequirementsStructural NeedsCycleLiquidityBusiness Considerations:Strategic PlansGrowth PlansManagementBusiness Risk Different MenusBull Market MenuBear Market MenuAs the credit curve shifts, the menu Financing ApproachesLeft Hand Side FinancingRight Hand Side FinancingBased on the cash flow PerspectiveAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008 Capital Market Specific FactorsCredit Specific FactorsCustomer Objectives ValuationStructuring PerspectiveAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008 Acceptable leverage levelsInterest RateAmortizationAcceptable tenor of senior debtAsset coverageSize of issueMarket Specific Public Debt vs. Private DebtRelative Value AnalysisDomestic vs. International IssuanceFixed vs. Floating Amount of available cash flowReliability of cash flowCredibility of projectionsCredit Specific FactorsAmsterdam Issuer Objectives / Impact (1)Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008 Issuer Objectives / Impact (2)Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008 Critical Path & Decision FrameworkFinancialFlexibilityTargetCreditRatingDetermineCapitalStructureHedgeNo ActionBankFundingAcquisitionBridge TakedownCreditRatingFixed IncomeAsset Carveout Securitization \ Prop Creating the StructureAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008 Rule of Thumb MeasuresBalance Sheet ModelCash Flow Model	Detailed ModelMatching markets to the Deal Financial ArithmeticAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008 Netherlands LBOVolume by IndustrySource: April 2008 EuroStats; www.lcdcomps.com Purchase PriceMinimum/MaximumRecapitalization DividendDebt RefinancingCallabilityPremiumsTax IssuesExpensesOther UsesFinancing Need As a Starting PointAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008 RevolverTied to advance against current assetsCrossing liensTerm Loan AMacro: Ratio of 3-4x Current Asset approachUse standard advance ratesAccounts Receivable 	80%Inventory 		 	60%PP&E			 	40%Consider the Term Loans = Maximum Senior Debt - RevolverFocus is on Free Operating Typical bank financings as structured as follows:	Revolving Credit	Term Loan A (amortising)	Term Loans Long Term Debt = Max Total Debt - Max Senior Secured DebtSenior Subordination Senior lenders are concerned with the implications of having high yield Contractual SubordinationHolding CompanyIntermediate Holding CompanyOperating CompanyOperating Company OperatingCompany100% EquityInterestIssuesIssuesHigh Yield BondsSubordinationAgreementSenior SecuredLoanAmsterdam Structural SubordinationHolding CompanyIntermediate Holding CompanyOperating CompanyOperating Company OperatingCompany100% EquityInterestIssuesIssuesHigh Yield BondsSupport PackageSenior RetrancheIncrease PricingLower LeverageLower Purchase PriceSeller PaperIncrease EquitySenior Notes to cover Amortizing LoansTerm Covenants Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008 PURPOSE: maintain the original dealWHYAgency problem due to asymmetric informationAdverse SelectionMoral HazardFOCUSAsset CategoriesAffirmativeThe maintenance, preservation and insurance of corporate assets and the compliance of There are no standard covenants. They must be tailor fit for each First-lien leveraged loans covenant statistics: Average number and distribution  Excludes covenant-lite Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008Incidence of key covenants in first-lien leveraged Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008Year One Debt/EBITDA Headroom as a Percentage Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008Percent of First-lien leveraged loans with one Average Debt/EBITDA Covenant Level and Projected Ratio for LBOs 1999 – 1Q08Amsterdam Covenant Levels and IssuesCovenants are negotiated between the lender and borrower.Covenant levels Translating Capital Structure and Debt Capacity into a Detailed Financing Structure.ConclusionAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008 Project GearAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008 Project Gear - FactsPotential deal for a company in auction.Private automotive parts Project Gear - FactsAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008 Project Gear - FactsAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008 PMD StatsAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008 Project Gear - Quick AnalysisAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008 Project Gear - Quick AnalysisAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008 Project Gear - Base CaseAssumptions :	8 % growth			Margins gradually improve to 14%			Allow Project Gear - Base CaseAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008 Project Gear - Downside		Assumptions :	0% growth			Margins flat (slight decline) to 11%			Do not Project Gear - DownsideAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008 Project Gear - Worst CaseAssumptons :	0% growth AND LBO/other causes lead to Project Gear - Worst CaseAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008 Project Gear - Responses (How & When)Year 2007 - Probably waive with DisclosureThis information has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is not
Слайды презентации

Слайд 2
Agenda
Overview

Perspective

Creating the structure

Covenants


Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008

AgendaOverviewPerspectiveCreating the structureCovenantsAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008

Слайд 3 Overview
Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008

OverviewAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008

Слайд 4 Transaction Framework
Strategic Issues
Do I make the acquisition?
Valuation

Transaction FrameworkStrategic Issues Do I make the acquisition?Valuation How much do

How much do I pay?
Financing
How do I pay?
Integration

Implementation of acquisition


Tactics

How do I make the offer?

Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008


Слайд 5
Transaction and Structuring Overview
Accounting
Tax
Corporate
Law
Securities
Regulatory
and Antitrust
Transaction Environment
Contract

Structuring

Transaction and Structuring OverviewAccountingTaxCorporateLawSecuritiesRegulatory and AntitrustTransaction Environment ContractStructuring EnvironmentBusinessPlanTransactionCharacteristicsFinancialPreferencesMarketConditionsDealCompetingBiddersCreditors RightsAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008

Environment
Business
Plan
Transaction
Characteristics
Financial
Preferences
Market
Conditions
Deal
Competing
Bidders
Creditors
Rights
Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008


Слайд 6 Structuring Environment

Financial Preferences:
Dilution
Control
Risk Tolerance
Flexibility
Exit Needs


Market Conditions:
Depth
Pricing Requirements
Structural Needs
Cycle
Liquidity

Business

Structuring EnvironmentFinancial Preferences:DilutionControlRisk ToleranceFlexibilityExit NeedsMarket Conditions:DepthPricing RequirementsStructural NeedsCycleLiquidityBusiness Considerations:Strategic PlansGrowth PlansManagementBusiness

Considerations:
Strategic Plans
Growth Plans
Management
Business Risk
(Cash Flow Volatility)


Financial Characteristics:
Sources and

Uses
Operating Cash Flows
Leverage
Liquidity
Seasonality
Timing

Deal

Maturity
Amortization
Seniority
Security
Covenants
Prepayment
Cost
Liquidity
Size

What do you want?

How to get what
you need!

What can you get?





Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008


Слайд 7 Different Menus

Bull Market Menu
Bear Market Menu

As the credit

Different MenusBull Market MenuBear Market MenuAs the credit curve shifts, the

curve shifts,
the menu that is available
to
Issuers /

Arrangers
changes

Holding Company PIK
Tranche Term Loans
Covenant Light
High Yield Debt
Bridge Loans
Second Lien
Hybrid Preferred
Cross Lien Facilities
Asset Carve-outs
OPCO/PROPCO
Recapitalizations

Stretch Senior
Seller Notes
Senior Notes
Private Placements
Equity
R/C Lite
Mezzanine
Smaller

Issuer Friendly

Investor Friendly

Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008


Слайд 8 Financing Approaches

Left Hand Side Financing
Right Hand Side Financing
Based

Financing ApproachesLeft Hand Side FinancingRight Hand Side FinancingBased on the cash

on the cash flow of a specific asset pool.

Some

examples include:

Asset Based Lending
Factoring
Leasing
Project Finance
Securitization

Based on the cash flow of the entire company.

Some examples include:

Bank Debt
Public Bonds
Mezzanine
Preferred Stock
Common Stock

Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008


Слайд 9 Perspective

Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008

PerspectiveAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008

Слайд 10 Capital Market Specific Factors

Credit Specific Factors

Customer Objectives
Valuation
Structuring Perspective
Amsterdam

Capital Market Specific FactorsCredit Specific FactorsCustomer Objectives ValuationStructuring PerspectiveAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008

Institute of Finance May, 2008


Слайд 11 Acceptable leverage levels
Interest Rate
Amortization

Acceptable tenor of senior debt

Asset

Acceptable leverage levelsInterest RateAmortizationAcceptable tenor of senior debtAsset coverageSize of issueMarket

coverage

Size of issue
Market Specific Factors
Amsterdam Institute of Finance May,

2008

Слайд 12 Public Debt vs. Private Debt
Relative Value Analysis

Domestic vs.

Public Debt vs. Private DebtRelative Value AnalysisDomestic vs. International IssuanceFixed vs.

International Issuance

Fixed vs. Floating Rate Debt

Long vs. Short Term

Loans

vs. Bonds

Structuring Issues

Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008


Слайд 13 Amount of available cash flow

Reliability of cash flow

Credibility

Amount of available cash flowReliability of cash flowCredibility of projectionsCredit Specific

of projections
Credit Specific Factors
Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008


Слайд 14 Issuer Objectives / Impact (1)
Amsterdam Institute of Finance

Issuer Objectives / Impact (1)Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008

May, 2008


Слайд 15 Issuer Objectives / Impact (2)
Amsterdam Institute of Finance

Issuer Objectives / Impact (2)Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008

May, 2008


Слайд 16 Critical Path & Decision Framework
Financial
Flexibility
Target
Credit
Rating
Determine
Capital
Structure

Hedge
No Action
Bank
Funding
Acquisition
Bridge
Takedown
Credit
Rating
Fixed Income
Asset

Critical Path & Decision FrameworkFinancialFlexibilityTargetCreditRatingDetermineCapitalStructureHedgeNo ActionBankFundingAcquisitionBridge TakedownCreditRatingFixed IncomeAsset Carveout Securitization \

Carveout
Securitization \ Prop Co
Bank Financing
Equity / Near Equity
Refinance
Bridge
Fixed-
Rate
Floating-
Rate
Advisory

/ Origination

Underwriting

Product Execution









Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008


Слайд 17 Creating the Structure
Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008

Creating the StructureAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008

Слайд 18 Rule of Thumb Measures
Balance Sheet Model
Cash Flow Model

Detailed

Rule of Thumb MeasuresBalance Sheet ModelCash Flow Model	Detailed ModelMatching markets to

Model
Matching markets to the need
Reverse inquiry
Projections (amortization capability)
Creating the

Capital Structure

Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008


Слайд 19 Deal Financial Arithmetic
Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008

Deal Financial ArithmeticAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008

Слайд 20 Netherlands LBO
Volume by Industry
Source: April 2008 EuroStats; www.lcdcomps.com

Netherlands LBOVolume by IndustrySource: April 2008 EuroStats; www.lcdcomps.com

Слайд 21 Purchase Price
Minimum/Maximum
Recapitalization Dividend
Debt Refinancing
Callability
Premiums
Tax Issues
Expenses

Other Uses
Financing Need As

Purchase PriceMinimum/MaximumRecapitalization DividendDebt RefinancingCallabilityPremiumsTax IssuesExpensesOther UsesFinancing Need As a Starting PointAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008

a Starting Point
Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008


Слайд 22 Revolver
Tied to advance against current assets
Crossing liens
Term Loan

RevolverTied to advance against current assetsCrossing liensTerm Loan AMacro: Ratio of

A
Macro: Ratio of 3-4x EBITDA
Micro: Amortization analysis tied to

cash flow in years 1-7
Term Loan B
Senior debt ratio less Term Loan A amortization

Second Lien
Macro: 0.5-1x EBITDA
Limited amortization
Longer term
Can also be covenant lite

Senior/Subordinated Unsecured
Other Debt
Total Debt/EBITDA less Senior Debt/EBITDA

Equity
Funding need less Total Debt/EBITDA

Structuring Framework

Senior Secured
First Lien

Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008


Слайд 23
Current Asset approach

Use standard advance rates
Accounts Receivable 80%
Inventory

Current Asset approachUse standard advance ratesAccounts Receivable 	80%Inventory 		 	60%PP&E			 	40%Consider

60%
PP&E 40%

Consider the following factors
Seasonal Needs
Future Working Capital

Growth
Unexpected Liquidity Needs

Sizing the Revolver

Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008


Слайд 24 Term Loans = Maximum Senior Debt - Revolver

Focus

Term Loans = Maximum Senior Debt - RevolverFocus is on Free

is on Free Operating Cash Flow

Market conditions also dictate

the maximum tenor of the loan and the amount required to be amortized in the first five years

Acceptable asset coverage is also a consideration in determining the size of the term loans

Sizing the Term Loans

Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008


Слайд 25 Typical bank financings as structured as follows:
Revolving Credit
Term

Typical bank financings as structured as follows:	Revolving Credit	Term Loan A (amortising)	Term

Loan A (amortising)
Term Loans B & C (bullet/balloon)
Add-On Term

Loans

Large unfunded revolvers are seldom used today due to the fact that it is capital unfriendly to banks and companies don’t like to pay for unused commitments.


In the interest of keeping flexibility for the long term, additional indebtedness baskets should be negotiated upfront. This allows companies to access either the bank or bond markets under their existing credit agreements and saves the costs of having to refinance.

Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008


Слайд 26 Long Term Debt = Max Total Debt -

Long Term Debt = Max Total Debt - Max Senior Secured

Max Senior Secured Debt
Senior unsecured
Sub Debt

Equity:
Equity = Total Uses

- Max Total Debt
Common
Hybrids

Junior Capital

Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008


Слайд 27 Subordination
Senior lenders are concerned with the implications

Subordination Senior lenders are concerned with the implications of having high

of having high yield investors at the table during

a restructuring.

EURO High Yield investors to date have not been as vocal as senior bank lenders, viewing the issue as one of pricing rather than principle.

All other things being equal, sophisticated investors will probably price structural subordination at 60-120 bps.

Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008


Слайд 28

Contractual Subordination
Holding Company
Intermediate Holding Company
Operating Company
Operating Company
Operating
Company
100%

Contractual SubordinationHolding CompanyIntermediate Holding CompanyOperating CompanyOperating Company OperatingCompany100% EquityInterestIssuesIssuesHigh Yield BondsSubordinationAgreementSenior

Equity
Interest
Issues
Issues
High Yield Bonds
Subordination
Agreement
Senior Secured
Loan
Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008


Слайд 29

Structural Subordination
Holding Company
Intermediate Holding Company
Operating Company
Operating Company
Operating
Company
100%

Structural SubordinationHolding CompanyIntermediate Holding CompanyOperating CompanyOperating Company OperatingCompany100% EquityInterestIssuesIssuesHigh Yield BondsSupport

Equity
Interest
Issues
Issues
High Yield Bonds
Support Package
Senior Secured
Loan
Amsterdam Institute of Finance May,

2008

Слайд 30 Retranche
Increase Pricing
Lower Leverage
Lower Purchase Price
Seller Paper
Increase Equity
Senior Notes

RetrancheIncrease PricingLower LeverageLower Purchase PriceSeller PaperIncrease EquitySenior Notes to cover Amortizing

to cover Amortizing Loans
Term Loan Carve-Out
Asset Sales
Second Lien
Debt covenants
Fixing

Broken Deal

Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008


Слайд 31 Covenants

Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008

Covenants Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008

Слайд 32 PURPOSE: maintain the original deal

WHY
Agency problem due to

PURPOSE: maintain the original dealWHYAgency problem due to asymmetric informationAdverse SelectionMoral

asymmetric information
Adverse Selection
Moral Hazard

FOCUS
Asset Substitution
Cash Control
Payment and asset priority
Covenants

- Fundamentals

Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008


Слайд 33 Categories
Affirmative
The maintenance, preservation and insurance of corporate assets

CategoriesAffirmativeThe maintenance, preservation and insurance of corporate assets and the compliance

and the compliance of environmental, ERISA and other laws

by the company
Negative
Limit or prohibit the company from undertaking certain actions which would lower the overall credit quality or damage a potential secondary repayment source
Financial
Provide an early warning for deteriorating operating performance

Approach
Maintenance (Preserving the credit)
Incurrence (Maintaining relative priority of claim)

Covenants – Categories and Approach

Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008


Слайд 34 There are no standard covenants.
They must be

There are no standard covenants. They must be tailor fit for

tailor fit for each deal and loan structure.
The

steps in structuring the covenants are:
Identify the risks (Business, Financial & Structural)
Select Covenants to monitor the risks
- Need to prioritize the risks to monitor because it will be impossible to monitor every risk
- The time and costs to monitor the covenants must be considered (i.e. sometimes one covenant can cover multiple risks)
Set Appropriate Levels
- Want the covenants to trigger a warning before any principal or interest payments become delinquent. Need to factor in any seasonal needs to the covenant levels.

Structuring Covenants

Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008


Слайд 35 First-lien leveraged loans covenant statistics: Average number and

First-lien leveraged loans covenant statistics: Average number and distribution Excludes covenant-lite

distribution Excludes covenant-lite deals
Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008
Copyright

© 2008 Standard & Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. www.lcdcomps.com


Слайд 36 Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008
Incidence of key

Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008Incidence of key covenants in first-lien

covenants in first-lien leveraged loans Excludes covenant-lite deals
Copyright © 2008

Standard & Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. www.lcdcomps.com


Слайд 37 Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008
Year One Debt/EBITDA

Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008Year One Debt/EBITDA Headroom as a

Headroom as a Percentage of Covenant Level for LBOs 1999

– 1Q08

Copyright © 2008 Standard & Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. www.lcdcomps.com


Слайд 38 Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008
Percent of First-lien

Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008Percent of First-lien leveraged loans with

leveraged loans with one maintenance finance covenant Excludes covenant-lite deals


Слайд 39 Average Debt/EBITDA Covenant Level and Projected Ratio for

Average Debt/EBITDA Covenant Level and Projected Ratio for LBOs 1999 –

LBOs 1999 – 1Q08
Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008


Слайд 40 Covenant Levels and Issues
Covenants are negotiated between the

Covenant Levels and IssuesCovenants are negotiated between the lender and borrower.Covenant

lender and borrower.

Covenant levels will affect the loan pricing

(ie pricing will increase for a “loose” covenant package).

Other covenant issues include releases, voting rights and baskets.

Copyright © 2008 Standard & Poor's, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. www.lcdcomps.com

Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008


Слайд 41 Translating Capital Structure and Debt Capacity into a

Translating Capital Structure and Debt Capacity into a Detailed Financing Structure.ConclusionAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008

Detailed Financing Structure.

Conclusion
Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008


Слайд 42 Project Gear
Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008

Project GearAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008

Слайд 43 Project Gear - Facts

Potential deal for a company

Project Gear - FactsPotential deal for a company in auction.Private automotive

in auction.
Private automotive parts company based in Europe.
Our client,

financial sponsor (RCC) looking to bid on the transaction.
May use this transaction as a platform.
Valuation range is 6x-8x EBITDA (or 63mm-84mm). A number of bidders.
The sponsor has a successful buyout fund (returns exceed 25% p.a.)

Avoidable private company expenses net of other adjustments are a maximum of 1 mm per annum.
Contracts/Relationships with OEMs should preserve sales and markets provide future achievable 5% growth. Could be as high as 10%.


Currently sales/assets mostly within Europe, in major economies.
Opportunities for growth through acquisition.

Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008


Слайд 44 Project Gear - Facts
Amsterdam Institute of Finance May,

Project Gear - FactsAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008

2008


Слайд 45 Project Gear - Facts
Amsterdam Institute of Finance May,

Project Gear - FactsAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008

2008


Слайд 46 PMD Stats
Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008

PMD StatsAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008

Слайд 47 Project Gear - Quick Analysis
Amsterdam Institute of Finance

Project Gear - Quick AnalysisAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008

May, 2008


Слайд 48 Project Gear - Quick Analysis
Amsterdam Institute of Finance

Project Gear - Quick AnalysisAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008

May, 2008


Слайд 49 Project Gear - Base Case
Assumptions : 8 % growth
Margins

Project Gear - Base CaseAssumptions :	8 % growth			Margins gradually improve to

gradually improve to 14%
Allow 1 mln addbacks
Capex 3.0% /

Working Capital 12.8% / Tax 35%



Results : Senior Debt pays off in 5 years (Term loans quicker)
Net cash position by year 8-9
Equity returns strong (until cash builds) based on 7x exit
Room for acquisitions / growth / recapitalization

Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008


Слайд 50 Project Gear - Base Case
Amsterdam Institute of Finance

Project Gear - Base CaseAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008

May, 2008


Слайд 51 Project Gear - Downside

Assumptions : 0% growth
Margins flat (slight

Project Gear - Downside		Assumptions :	0% growth			Margins flat (slight decline) to 11%			Do

decline) to 11%
Do not allow 1 mln addbacks
Capex 3.0%

/ Working Capital 13% / Tax 35%



Results : Senior Debt pays off slowly but still within 7-8 years
Term loan amortization still met
Equity returns weak
Limited room for acquisitions / growth / recapitalization

Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008


Слайд 52 Project Gear - Downside
Amsterdam Institute of Finance May,

Project Gear - DownsideAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008

2008


Слайд 53 Project Gear - Worst Case
Assumptons : 0% growth AND

Project Gear - Worst CaseAssumptons :	0% growth AND LBO/other causes lead

LBO/other causes lead to significant lost sales in yr

1
(loss of >10% of sales in year one follow by >5% in year 2 because of
inability to respond)
Margins decline to 9% and then 8.5%
Do not allow 1 mln addbacks
Capex 4% (committed on lower sales / respond to issues)
Working Capital 13% / Tax 35%



Results : Senior Debt (increases / no liquidity by yr 2-3)
Never in net cash position
Equity returns gone - Need for new equity !
No flexibility


Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008


Слайд 54 Project Gear - Worst Case
Amsterdam Institute of Finance

Project Gear - Worst CaseAmsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008

May, 2008


Слайд 55 Project Gear - Responses (How & When)
Year 2007

Project Gear - Responses (How & When)Year 2007 - Probably waive

- Probably waive with revised management plans

Year 2008 -

Probably amend and tighten up :
Refinance ?
Reporting ?
Asset Sales ?
Inter-creditor ?

Year 2009
No improvement
No liquidity

WHAT NOW ?

Amsterdam Institute of Finance May, 2008


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