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Презентация на тему Capacity and Demand (Lecture # 10)

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A problemAUA average power consumption rate is: 75 kW.Large Auditorium Lighting ONLY takes: 120 kW.Size a gas driven generator.
Capacity and DemandIE350 A problemAUA average power consumption rate is: 75 kW.Large Auditorium Lighting ONLY SolutionAnswer:75 kW? 120 kW? 195 kW? Or?Answer: Solve an optimization problem. Capacity & DemandInvestment is needed to add the physical Stock of Capital.Capital Capacity & DemandPower shortage means:Peak demand > Installed capacityEnergy shortage means:Not enough fuel to generate power. Load curvesElectric power demand = loadLoad curves, regular (periodic):DailyWeekly Seasonal Per shift, other…?Plus a stochastic component. Seasonal Daily Peak Demand Annual Frequency Histogram Daily Capacity factor (CF)    Actual Generated EnergyCF = Energy Generated Hydropower Comparison PV capacity factor1kW of PV produces always annual amount kWhs equal to Energy Shortage:  Two ApproachesConstruction of new capacities - supply side.Conservation, Load leveling – demand side. Peak vs. Average vs. BaseAUA peak is:75 kW? 120 kW? 195 kW? Or?Average is another number… CountrywisePeakAverage Base PeakAll powerplants, all generation capacities are operating.We are going to extreme measures: BaseConsumption never goes below certain amountMetsamor NPP is providing the base power. 2011Ã.-Ç Ñ½áñáõÃÛ³Ý ¨¿É»Ïïñ³¿Ý»ñ·Ç³ÛÇ Ñ³ßí»ÏßÇé ¾É»Ïïñ³¿Ý»ñ·Ç³ÛÇ Ñ³ßí»ÏßÇé Average is in Between!Thus one needs:BASE, stabile, powerplants, e.g. Nuclear, Coal. CF RenewableWind (CF Load leveling is a method for reducing large fluctuations in power demand Load Leveling - DSMDemand Side Management, the task is to decrease the Elasticity    	% Demand ChangeE(d) =	% of Price Change Load Leveling - SSMSupply Side Management, the task is to organize capacities European policyIn 2007, the EU was importing 82% of its oil and Energy Market Dispatching StorageHydro-PumpNatural gasThermalHydrogen Storage Load levelling – pumped hydro storage Load levelling – pumped hydro storage RA gasification level	~94%Length of the main pipelines	14 050 kmNumber of gasified communities	576Number Load levelling – EV fleet HomeworkProblem #1, page 94 of the Shaten WB.
Слайды презентации

Слайд 2 A problem
AUA average power consumption rate is: 75 kW.
Large

A problemAUA average power consumption rate is: 75 kW.Large Auditorium Lighting

Auditorium Lighting ONLY takes: 120 kW.
Size a gas driven

generator.

Слайд 3 Solution
Answer:
75 kW?
120 kW?
195 kW?
Or?
Answer: Solve

SolutionAnswer:75 kW? 120 kW? 195 kW? Or?Answer: Solve an optimization problem.

an optimization problem.


Слайд 4 Capacity & Demand
Investment is needed to add the

Capacity & DemandInvestment is needed to add the physical Stock of

physical Stock of Capital.
Capital Stock =
= Installed Capacity

= = Size = Power, In …

Слайд 5 Capacity & Demand
Power shortage means:
Peak demand > Installed

Capacity & DemandPower shortage means:Peak demand > Installed capacityEnergy shortage means:Not enough fuel to generate power.

capacity
Energy shortage means:
Not enough fuel to generate power.


Слайд 6 Load curves
Electric power demand = load
Load curves, regular

Load curvesElectric power demand = loadLoad curves, regular (periodic):DailyWeekly Seasonal Per shift, other…?Plus a stochastic component.

(periodic):
Daily
Weekly
Seasonal
Per shift, other…?
Plus a stochastic component.


Слайд 7 Seasonal

Seasonal

Слайд 8 Daily Peak Demand Annual Frequency Histogram

Daily Peak Demand Annual Frequency Histogram

Слайд 9 Daily

Daily

Слайд 10 Capacity factor (CF)

Actual Generated

Capacity factor (CF)  Actual Generated EnergyCF = Energy Generated @

Energy
CF =
Energy Generated @ 100%

Is it constant?
It

is different for different types of powerplants.

Слайд 11 Hydropower

Hydropower

Слайд 12 Comparison

Comparison

Слайд 13 PV capacity factor
1kW of PV produces always annual

PV capacity factor1kW of PV produces always annual amount kWhs equal

amount kWhs equal to the monitoring amount:
… e.g. in

Yerevan we have 1720kWh/m2 annually.
1720/8760 = 19.63% - capacity factor for PV.
For 3 kW system we would get 5160 kWh

Слайд 14 Energy Shortage: Two Approaches
Construction of new capacities -

Energy Shortage: Two ApproachesConstruction of new capacities - supply side.Conservation, Load leveling – demand side.

supply side.
Conservation, Load leveling – demand side.


Слайд 15 Peak vs. Average vs. Base
AUA peak is:
75 kW?

Peak vs. Average vs. BaseAUA peak is:75 kW? 120 kW? 195 kW? Or?Average is another number…


120 kW?
195 kW?
Or?
Average is another number…


Слайд 16 Countrywise
Peak
Average
Base

CountrywisePeakAverage Base

Слайд 17 Peak
All powerplants, all generation capacities are operating.
We are

PeakAll powerplants, all generation capacities are operating.We are going to extreme

going to extreme measures: ALLOWING TO LOWER SEVAN LEVEL!
We

are buying power from other countries
And the power is not enough: in some places power is cut.

Слайд 18 Base
Consumption never goes below certain amount
Metsamor NPP is

BaseConsumption never goes below certain amountMetsamor NPP is providing the base power.

providing the base power.


Слайд 20 2011Ã.-Ç Ñ½áñáõÃÛ³Ý ¨
¿É»Ïïñ³¿Ý»ñ·Ç³ÛÇ Ñ³ßí»ÏßÇé

2011Ã.-Ç Ñ½áñáõÃÛ³Ý ¨¿É»Ïïñ³¿Ý»ñ·Ç³ÛÇ Ñ³ßí»ÏßÇé

Слайд 21 ¾É»Ïïñ³¿Ý»ñ·Ç³ÛÇ Ñ³ßí»ÏßÇé

¾É»Ïïñ³¿Ý»ñ·Ç³ÛÇ Ñ³ßí»ÏßÇé

Слайд 22 Average is in Between!
Thus one needs:
BASE, stabile, powerplants,

Average is in Between!Thus one needs:BASE, stabile, powerplants, e.g. Nuclear, Coal.

e.g. Nuclear, Coal. CF > 90%;
PEAKING, a powerplant that

has relatively small capital (fixed) cost, although the operational (variable) cost is high. Gas-turbine. CF ~ 5%
INTERMEDIATE, that can output variable power. Combined cycle natural gas. CF ~ 30% ÷ 80%.

Слайд 24 Renewable
Wind (CF

RenewableWind (CF

Слайд 26 Load leveling
is a method for reducing large

Load leveling is a method for reducing large fluctuations in power demand

fluctuations in power demand


Слайд 27 Load Leveling - DSM
Demand Side Management, the task

Load Leveling - DSMDemand Side Management, the task is to decrease

is to decrease the demand at PEAK TIMES.
Tariff regulations:

- tariffs’ non-linear dependency on power consumed. - time dependency of tariffs
Deciding the hours of operation, Chasing the load, Real-time pricing based on forecasts
Overall Energy Efficiency measures – wide use of LEDs, ventilation and insulation, etc.

Слайд 28 Elasticity

% Demand Change
E(d) =
%

Elasticity  	% Demand ChangeE(d) =	% of Price Change

of Price Change


Слайд 29 Load Leveling - SSM
Supply Side Management, the task

Load Leveling - SSMSupply Side Management, the task is to organize

is to organize capacities to meet the demand at

PEAK TIMES.
Need in energy generation market existence with advanced dispatching capability.
Deciding the hours of generation, Chasing the load, Real-time pricing based on forecasts
Renewable energy generation encouragement policies.

Слайд 30 European policy
In 2007, the EU was importing 82%

European policyIn 2007, the EU was importing 82% of its oil

of its oil and 57% of its gas, which

then made it the world's leading importer of these fuels.
Only 3% of the uranium used in European nuclear reactors has been mined in Europe. Russia, Canada, Australia, Niger and Kazakhstan were the five largest suppliers of nuclear materials to the EU, supplying more than 75% of the total needs in 2009.
In 2015, the EU imports 53% of the energy it consumes. In January 2014, the EU agreed to a 40% emissions reduction by 2030, compared to 1990 levels, and a 27% renewable energy target.

Слайд 31 Energy Market

Energy Market

Слайд 32 Dispatching

Dispatching

Слайд 33 Storage
Hydro-Pump
Natural gas
Thermal
Hydrogen

StorageHydro-PumpNatural gasThermalHydrogen

Слайд 34 Storage

Storage

Слайд 35 Load levelling – pumped hydro storage

Load levelling – pumped hydro storage

Слайд 36 Load levelling – pumped hydro storage

Load levelling – pumped hydro storage

Слайд 37 RA gasification level ~94%
Length of the main pipelines 14 050

RA gasification level	~94%Length of the main pipelines	14 050 kmNumber of gasified

km
Number of gasified communities 576
Number of consumers (01.03.2012) 627 065

potential consumers 80 444
Import, mln. m3 2 069/1 765
Abovian Underground
Gas Storage facility 129 mln.m3

Gas Supply System
Main Indicators (as of 31.12.2011)


Слайд 38 Load levelling – EV fleet

Load levelling – EV fleet

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