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Презентация на тему Corporate law and economics 3: does law matter for finance?

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New institutional economicsinstitutions, understood as rules, practices and routines of varying degrees of formality and embeddedness, matter to economic performance (North, Aoki)legal rules affect economic growth according to how far they support market access, contract enforcement
Corporate Law and Economics 3: Does law matter for finance?Simon DeakinUniversity of New institutional economicsinstitutions, understood as rules, practices and routines of varying degrees ‘Law matters’A higher degree of shareholder protection through law encourages stock market The ‘anti-director rights index’6 core variables: ‘proxy by mail allowed’, ‘shares not The ‘labor regulation index’Over 100 variables, covering employment protection, collective labour relations, Updated measures (mid-2000s): anti self-dealing index, prospectus index, creditor rights indexHigher The ‘new comparative economics’There are significant variations across national regimes in all Families of legal systems The legal origin hypothesisThe content of legal rules is influenced by the Different approaches to market regulation‘We adopt a broad conception of legal origin Aggregate economic outcomesMahoney: faster GDP growth in common law countries than civilian Criticisms of the methods used to generate the empirical findingsSome values were Criticisms of the explanations given for the observed effectsThe description of the Tentative conclusionsLegal systems are autonomous institutional phenomena with the potential to influence Some questionsCan we adequately quantify differences in the content of legal rules?What Empirical case study: does company law influence economic growth?What is the contribution Governance, finance and growth: the critical questionsWhat is the contribution of financial Legal origin and growthFirms grow faster where they can access external finance How law influences financeA higher level of shareholder protection in a given Three hypothesesConvergence hypothesis: systems are converging at the level of formal law New evidence on law and financial developmentThe datasets constructed by LLSV are The business judgment ruleIn the United States, the courts have articulated the Shareholder protection indexPowers of shareholder meetingAgenda setting powerProxy voting facilitatedOne share one Country-level data (1) Country-level data (2) SPI by level of development SPI by legal origin Change in indicators over time Creditor protection indexMinimum capital requirementDividend restrictionDirectors’ duties to creditorsSecurity: scopeSecurity: registrationSecurity: enforcementEntry CPI by level of development CPI by legal origin Econometric analysisPanel VAR Granger causality tests carried out to see whether changes Modelwhere Y is GDP per capita (in natural log), LPCY, RULE is Main findingNo evidence of law influencing financial development (or vice versa) for Effects by level of development and legal originIncreased shareholder protection linked to ConclusionsIndeterminacy of legal change in driving economic outcomesFormal, but not functional convergenceEvidence
Слайды презентации

Слайд 2 New institutional economics
institutions, understood as rules, practices and

New institutional economicsinstitutions, understood as rules, practices and routines of varying

routines of varying degrees of formality and embeddedness, matter

to economic performance (North, Aoki)
legal rules affect economic growth according to how far they support market access, contract enforcement and and the protection of property rights (La Porta et al.)

Слайд 3 ‘Law matters’
A higher degree of shareholder protection through

‘Law matters’A higher degree of shareholder protection through law encourages stock

law encourages stock market development and dispersed share ownership

(La Porta et al. 1998)
Rules protecting creditor rights promote banking development and the growth of private credit (Djankov et al, 2008)
Labour protection, by contrast, is mostly driven by rent-seeking (the protection of vested interests) and results in inefficiencies (higher unemployment and lower productivity, as well as a larger informal economy) (Botero et al., 2004)

Слайд 4 The ‘anti-director rights index’
6 core variables: ‘proxy by

The ‘anti-director rights index’6 core variables: ‘proxy by mail allowed’, ‘shares

mail allowed’, ‘shares not blocked before the meeting’, ‘cumulative

voting’, ‘oppressed minorities mechanism’, ‘pre-emptive rights to new issues’, and ‘share capital required to call an extraordinary shareholder meeting’.
Also: ‘one share one vote’ and ‘mandatory dividend’
On the basis of data collected for 49 countries in the mid-1990s, low scores on the ADRI were associated with higher concentration of ownership and a lower degree of stock market activity, in particular in French-origin systems
‘legal systems matter to corporate governance and … firms have to adapt to the limitations of the legal systems that they operate in’ (La Porta et al. 1998).


Слайд 6 The ‘labor regulation index’
Over 100 variables, covering employment

The ‘labor regulation index’Over 100 variables, covering employment protection, collective labour

protection, collective labour relations, and social security law, for

85 countries, in the late 1990s
Common law systems have lower scores than civil law ones particularly in relation to employment protection
Higher scores on the labour regulation index are correlated with lower male employment rates, higher youth unemployment, and a larger informal economy (Botero et al., 2004)


Слайд 7 Updated measures (mid-2000s): anti self-dealing index, prospectus index,

Updated measures (mid-2000s): anti self-dealing index, prospectus index, creditor rights

creditor rights index
Higher scores on the anti-self dealing index

are correlated with increases in the stock-market/GDP ratio, the number of listed firms, and in ownership dispersion
The prospectus index scores are linked to lower control premia
Higher scores on the creditor rights index are correlated with an increase in the private credit/GDP ratio

Слайд 9 The ‘new comparative economics’
There are significant variations across

The ‘new comparative economics’There are significant variations across national regimes in

national regimes in all the areas of law which

have been examined using the coding methods developed by LLSV, and these differences map on to the divide between common law and civil law legal families
Systems of common law origin provide higher levels of shareholder and creditor protection than those of the civil law and regulate the labour market less intensively


Слайд 10 Families of legal systems

Families of legal systems

Слайд 11 The legal origin hypothesis
The content of legal rules

The legal origin hypothesisThe content of legal rules is influenced by

is influenced by the infrastructure of the legal system,

i.e., the way that disputes are resolved, the relationship between the courts and the legislature, and the capacity of legal rules for adaptation. The nature of this ‘legal infrastructure’ varies across national systems, with the principal point of difference being the divide between the common law and civil law legal families (La Porta et al. 1997-2007).


Слайд 12 Different approaches to market regulation
‘We adopt a broad

Different approaches to market regulation‘We adopt a broad conception of legal

conception of legal origin as a style of social

control economic life… Civil law is associated with a heavier hand of government ownership and regulation than common law…[and with] greater corruption, higher unemployment and larger informal economy… common law is associated with lower formalism of judicial procedures and greater judicial independence than civil law…[and] with greater contract enforcement and greater security of property rights’ (La Porta et al., 2008: 286).


Слайд 13 Aggregate economic outcomes
Mahoney: faster GDP growth in common

Aggregate economic outcomesMahoney: faster GDP growth in common law countries than

law countries than civilian ones post-1945
But, German-origin systems grew

faster than common law ones (with French-origin ones growing most slowly)
And Mahoney’s result largely disappears when standard controls (e.g. years of schooling) are put in (LLS, 2008)
Moreover, the result doesn’t hold for developed systems up to 1980 (Hall and Soskice)
Although common law systems have enjoyed faster growth than civil law ones since 1980, overall growth rates in 1980-2000 period are half those in the period 1960-1980 (Blankenburg and Plesch)
‘The Legal Origins Theory does not say that common law always works better for the economy (LLS, 2008: 309)


Слайд 14 Criticisms of the methods used to generate the

Criticisms of the methods used to generate the empirical findingsSome values

empirical findings
Some values were incorrect and the approach to

coding inconsistent (Cools, Braendle, Spamann)
Implicit weightings in the LLSV indices were not explained (Ahlering and Deakin) (cf, LLS, 2008: 291: ‘an important feature of [the cross-country] studies is that all countries received the same weight’)
Selection bias in the definition of the core variables (Siems)
Original results disappeared with more consistent coding (Spamann)… new approaches were tried including use of questionnaire evidence, apparently restoring the findings (Djankov et al., 2008; La Porta et al., 2008)… but these new data sources are also open to question
Over-reliance on cross-sectional data (but see LLS 2008: 299, reviewing some recent longitudinal studies)


Слайд 15 Criticisms of the explanations given for the observed

Criticisms of the explanations given for the observed effectsThe description of

effects
The description of the difference between the civil law

and common law systems given in the new comparative economics is a caricature: ‘a superficial and outdated image of the differences between the common law and the civil law’ (Mattei)
Legislation is highly significant as a source of norms for the common law systems in the area of economic regulation (Ahlering and Deakin; but see above, response of LLS).
Civil law judges arguably have greater power to control outcomes than their common law counterparts, through the use of general clauses and similar interpretive devices (Pistor)


Слайд 16 Tentative conclusions
Legal systems are autonomous institutional phenomena with

Tentative conclusionsLegal systems are autonomous institutional phenomena with the potential to

the potential to influence long-run patterns of economic development
But,

the conventional distinction between the common law and the civil law is too crude to bear the weight being placed on it
The strong-form legal origin hypothesis seems hard to support because of legal variation over time and the lack of a consistently clear link between law and economic outcome variables
There is no straightforward relationship between the degree of regulation and whether a country has a common law or civil law origin; much depends on the legal context (contrasting results for shareholder and worker protection)
A weak-form version of the legal origin hypothesis may be plausible: the origins of legal infrastructure in a given system may make a difference to the substance of rules and to economic outcomes, but legal systems are likely to be endogenous, to some extent, to the political and economic contexts within which they operate, and the implications of origin for efficiency are unclear a priori

Слайд 17 Some questions
Can we adequately quantify differences in the

Some questionsCan we adequately quantify differences in the content of legal

content of legal rules?
What conclusions can be drawn from

econometric analysis of correlations between legal change and economic outcomes?
What are the normative implications of the legal origin hypothesis?

Слайд 18 Empirical case study: does company law influence economic

Empirical case study: does company law influence economic growth?What is the

growth?
What is the contribution of financial markets to economic

growth in developed and developing countries?
What is the contribution of the legal system in general, and of corporate law/governance in particular, to financial development and economic growth?

Слайд 19 Governance, finance and growth: the critical questions
What is

Governance, finance and growth: the critical questionsWhat is the contribution of

the contribution of financial markets to economic growth in

developed and developing countries?
What is the contribution of the legal system in general, and of corporate law/governance in particular, to financial development and economic growth?

Слайд 20 Legal origin and growth
Firms grow faster where they

Legal origin and growthFirms grow faster where they can access external

can access external finance (Levine, 1997)
Thus legal origin theory

supports the claims that (1) legal reform is a means of promoting financial and economic development, and that (2) common law systems are better placed than civil law ones to generate market-driven growth, underpinned by law


Слайд 21 How law influences finance
A higher level of shareholder

How law influences financeA higher level of shareholder protection in a

protection in a given country is correlated with more

dispersed share ownership, a larger listed company sector, and a higher ratio of stock market values to GDP (La Porta et al. 1998)
‘Legal systems matter to corporate governance and… firms have to adapt to the limitations of the legal systems that they operate in’ (ibid.)
High scores on creditor protection index linked to growth of private (bank-based) credit: Djankov et al., 2007
But, these findings mostly based on cross-sectional data and inadequate coding of laws




Слайд 22 Three hypotheses
Convergence hypothesis: systems are converging at the

Three hypothesesConvergence hypothesis: systems are converging at the level of formal

level of formal law (formal convergence) and in terms

of effects of law on financial development (functional convergence)
Complementarity hypothesis: legal and financial institutions co-evolved in a complementary way, reflecting local diversity
Transplant hypothesis: transfer of legal models from common law world to civil law world likely to encounter resistance

Слайд 23 New evidence on law and financial development
The datasets

New evidence on law and financial developmentThe datasets constructed by LLSV

constructed by LLSV are deficient in presenting only a

cross-sectional view of differences in the law across countries, as well as suffering from some coding errors
The development of more recent, longitudinal datasets by the CBR (Cambridge Centre for Business Research) makes it possible to introduce time-series element into the analysis of law and financial development: http://www.cbr.cam.ac.uk/research/programme2/project2-20output.htm
SPI and CPI, 25 countries, 1995-2005

Слайд 24 The business judgment rule
In the United States, the

The business judgment ruleIn the United States, the courts have articulated

courts have articulated the ‘business judgment’ rule, according to

which the courts will not, in general, review decisions of the board taken in good faith in the interests of the company, with adequate information, and according to normal standards of prudence (similar conventions operate in the UK).
But the rule will not apply where there is self-dealing; and takeover bids may be special cases.

Слайд 25 Shareholder protection index
Powers of shareholder meeting
Agenda setting power
Proxy

Shareholder protection indexPowers of shareholder meetingAgenda setting powerProxy voting facilitatedOne share

voting facilitated
One share one vote
Independent directors
Director dismissal
Derivative action
Action against

majority shareholder
Mandatory bid
Block disclosure


Слайд 26 Country-level data (1)

Country-level data (1)

Слайд 27 Country-level data (2)

Country-level data (2)

Слайд 28 SPI by level of development

SPI by level of development

Слайд 29 SPI by legal origin

SPI by legal origin

Слайд 30 Change in indicators over time

Change in indicators over time

Слайд 31 Creditor protection index
Minimum capital requirement
Dividend restriction
Directors’ duties to

Creditor protection indexMinimum capital requirementDividend restrictionDirectors’ duties to creditorsSecurity: scopeSecurity: registrationSecurity:

creditors
Security: scope
Security: registration
Security: enforcement
Entry to insolvency/corporate bankruptcy
Stay of secured

creditors
Outcome of insolvency proceedings
Ranking of secured claimants

Слайд 32 CPI by level of development

CPI by level of development

Слайд 33 CPI by legal origin

CPI by legal origin

Слайд 34 Econometric analysis
Panel VAR Granger causality tests carried out

Econometric analysisPanel VAR Granger causality tests carried out to see whether

to see whether changes in the SPI or CPI

cause or are caused by financial development (as measured by stock market capitalisation/turnover and bank credit respectively), after controlling for rule of law, GDP level
Panel data estimation (GMM) technique used to clarify the nature of impacts (positive or negative)





Слайд 35 Model



where Y is GDP per capita (in natural

Modelwhere Y is GDP per capita (in natural log), LPCY, RULE

log), LPCY, RULE is the rule of law index,

DOT is a dummy for dotcom bubble which takes the value zero for 1995-2000 and 1 for the period, 2001-2005, a is the fixed effect common across the panels and eit is the error term varying across time and panels. To choose the lags (p, q and r in the regression model) which indicate how many past years are to be considered, a number of possible approaches available (such as the sequential modified LR test statistic (LRM), the final prediction error approach (FPE), the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Schwarz information criterion (SC), and the Hannan-Quinn information criterion (HQ)). Different criteria often choose different lag lengths and we have considered the maximum lag length. Similarly, to test whether X causes Z we interchange the position of X and Z in the above equation.


Слайд 36 Main finding
No evidence of law influencing financial development

Main findingNo evidence of law influencing financial development (or vice versa)

(or vice versa) for sample as a whole, but

there are impacts if the sample is split by reference to level of development and legal origin


Слайд 37 Effects by level of development and legal origin
Increased

Effects by level of development and legal originIncreased shareholder protection linked

shareholder protection linked to stock market growth in developing

countries
But, increased shareholder protection linked to stock market bubbles in developed, common law countries

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