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Презентация на тему Strategic decision-making is an iterative process

Strategic decision-making is an iterative processFinancial ambitionDividend share of 40%Equity to asset ratio >30%ROCE between 10-15%Where to play &How to winBonava potential to captureHistorical performanceRMS positionAbility to achieve competitive advantageMarket attractivenessLong-term market potentialPotential to convert demand
Strategy workshop2017-05-1708/06/2017 Strategic decision-making is an iterative processFinancial ambitionDividend share of 40%Equity to asset Slowing down of housing price increases most common08/06/2017 Large difference in size of Bonava’s regions08/06/2017Source: Data collections0.4Ostsee1.2Greater Gothenburg0.6Tallinn0.62.31.8Rhein-Main3.0Köln/BonnCopenhagenStockholm county5.3Rhein-Ruhr4.0Rhein-Neckar/Stuttgart4.5St Petersburg5.52.5 All regions have positive population growth rate08/06/2017Note: For Sachsen and Köln/Bonn assumed Differences in market risk parameters between our markets08/06/2017DenmarkNorwayCopenhagenSwedenLithauniaGermanyFinlandEstoniaLatviaLithauniaNorwayDenmarkEstoniaRussiaLatviaSwedenFinlandGermanyEase of doing business (ranking Backup: What is included in ease of doing business08/06/2017Ease of doing businessRanking Market attractiveness model weight together scores08/06/2017Market attractiveness ranking Back up: Details of model1. Market characteristic4. Economic sentimentFactorDescriptionPayment terms from customers Sweden and Germany in top08/06/2017OstseeOuluSt PetersburgTampereTurkuLinköpingKöln/BonnStockholm countyGreater GothenburgGreater HelsinkiHamburgTallinnRhein-Neckar/StuttgartBergenBerlinRhein-RuhrSachsenUppsalaRhein-MainRigaCopenhagenUmeåMarket attractiveness ranking score Agreed current situation at EMG meeting08/06/2017Construction cost (cost/m2)Accumulated production volume in same Market attractiveness – Data driven strategy processStrategic ideasBeyond 2020What if the crisis comesAgenda08/06/2017 Beyond 2020 we should accelerate growth08/06/20172016-20202021-2025Mature all markets for future strengthEstablish Design To achieve 10% growth 2020-2025 different potential scenarios08/06/20171) Since average sales prices
Слайды презентации

Слайд 2 Strategic decision-making is an iterative process
Financial ambition
Dividend share

Strategic decision-making is an iterative processFinancial ambitionDividend share of 40%Equity to

of 40%
Equity to asset ratio >30%
ROCE between 10-15%
Where to

play &
How to win



Bonava potential to capture
Historical performance
RMS position
Ability to achieve competitive advantage


Market attractiveness
Long-term market potential
Potential to convert demand to deals


Resource limitations
Capital
Management attention
Resources/capabilities

08/06/2017

1

2

3

4


Слайд 3 Slowing down of housing price increases most common
08/06/2017

Slowing down of housing price increases most common08/06/2017

Слайд 4 Large difference in size of Bonava’s regions
08/06/2017
Source: Data

Large difference in size of Bonava’s regions08/06/2017Source: Data collections0.4Ostsee1.2Greater Gothenburg0.6Tallinn0.62.31.8Rhein-Main3.0Köln/BonnCopenhagenStockholm county5.3Rhein-Ruhr4.0Rhein-Neckar/Stuttgart4.5St

collections
0.4
Ostsee
1.2
Greater Gothenburg
0.6
Tallinn
0.6
2.3
1.8
Rhein-Main
3.0
Köln/Bonn
Copenhagen
Stockholm county
5.3
Rhein-Ruhr
4.0
Rhein-Neckar/Stuttgart
4.5
St Petersburg
5.5
2.5 (Brandenburg)
3.7 (Berlin)
Berlin incl. Brandenburg
6.2
1.5
Sachsen
Hamburg
1.0
1.8
Greater Helsinki
1.4
Riga
Linköping
0.2
Turku
0.2
Oulu
Umeå
0.2
0.1
Tampere
0.2
Uppsala
Bergen
0.2
Population

in our regions. million inhabitants

Слайд 5 All regions have positive population growth rate
08/06/2017
Note: For

All regions have positive population growth rate08/06/2017Note: For Sachsen and Köln/Bonn

Sachsen and Köln/Bonn assumed provided figure was for period

2010-2016. Recalculated to get a yearly value























1.2%

Uppsala

Linköping

1.5%

Bergen

1.0%

1.0%

St Petersburg

Oulu

1.5%

Umeå

Greater Gothenburg

1.0%

Sachsen

1.9%

Stockholm county

1.1%

2.0%

Rhein-Main

Rhein-Ruhr

1.7%

1.5%

0.5%

0.5%

Hamburg

0.5% (only
Berlin 0.95%)

Ostsee

Rhein-Neckar/Stuttgart

0.4%

0.4%

Berlin incl Brandenburg

1.2%

Tallinn

Copenhagen

1.1%

Köln/Bonn

Turku

0.7%

0.8%

Tampere

Riga

0.9%

Greater Helsinki

0.6%

Population vs. population growth. %

Yearly population growth

Total population


Слайд 6 Differences in market risk parameters between our markets
08/06/2017

Denmark
Norway
Copenhagen
Sweden
Lithaunia
Germany
Finland
Estonia
Latvia
Lithaunia
Norway
Denmark
Estonia
Russia
Latvia
Sweden
Finland
Germany
Ease

Differences in market risk parameters between our markets08/06/2017DenmarkNorwayCopenhagenSwedenLithauniaGermanyFinlandEstoniaLatviaLithauniaNorwayDenmarkEstoniaRussiaLatviaSwedenFinlandGermanyEase of doing business

of doing business (ranking 1 = Best country in

the world)

Currency volatility (compared to SEK). %


Слайд 7
Backup: What is included in ease of doing

Backup: What is included in ease of doing business08/06/2017Ease of doing

business
08/06/2017


Ease of doing business
Ranking by The World Bank

Purpose:
Economies are

ranked on the ease of doing business. from 1–190
A high ease of doing business ranking means the regulatory environment is more conducive to the starting and operation of a local firm

Included sub parameters

Starting a business

Estonia (14)

Germany (114)

Dealing with construction permit

Denmark (6)

Russia (115)

Getting electricity

Germany (5)

Latvia (42)

Registering property

Estonia (6)

Germany (79)

Getting Credit

Latvia (7)

Norway (75)

Protecting Minority investors

Norway (9)

Finland (70)

Paying taxes

Denmark (7)

Russia (45)

Enforcing contracts

Norway (4)

Finland (40)

Trading cross borders

Denmark (1)

Russia (140)

Resolving insolvency

Finland (1)

Russia (51)

Best performing of our markets (global position)

Worst performing of our markets (global position)


Слайд 8 Market attractiveness model weight together scores
08/06/2017


Market attractiveness ranking

Market attractiveness model weight together scores08/06/2017Market attractiveness ranking

Слайд 9 Back up: Details of model
1. Market characteristic
4. Economic

Back up: Details of model1. Market characteristic4. Economic sentimentFactorDescriptionPayment terms from

sentiment
Factor
Description
Payment terms from customers
Payment terms for land

Project

development time

Market concentration

Unemployment

GDP growth
Customer activity

08/06/2017



Always included

Included for short term evaluation

Measured by 3 archetypes
Share of options/off balance percent (of total plots) (internal data)
Average time between TG2 and TG4 (internal data)
Market share of top 4 players

Absolute unemployment rate
Forecasted unemployment rate change
Forecasted GDP growth
Number of transaction per inhabitant

Metric

When good (high or low figure)

n/a
High

Low

Low

Low
Low
High
High

Weight

25%

2. Long term demand and supply balance

Population

Demand-Supply balance

Total population in the region
Forecasted population growth
Historic housing price development

High
High
High

3. Market risk

Industry concentration

Country risk
Currency risk

Binary metric (1 or 0). 1 if you have a clear industry concentration
World bank – Ease doing business index
Daily currency volatility

Low
Low
Low

25%

50%

7.5%
7.5%

5%

5%

15%
5%
5%

0%1
25%
25%

1) All current cities score 0 so excluded from analysis


Слайд 10 Sweden and Germany in top
08/06/2017

Ostsee
Oulu
St Petersburg
Tampere
Turku
Linköping
Köln/Bonn
Stockholm county
Greater Gothenburg
Greater

Sweden and Germany in top08/06/2017OstseeOuluSt PetersburgTampereTurkuLinköpingKöln/BonnStockholm countyGreater GothenburgGreater HelsinkiHamburgTallinnRhein-Neckar/StuttgartBergenBerlinRhein-RuhrSachsenUppsalaRhein-MainRigaCopenhagenUmeåMarket attractiveness ranking

Helsinki
Hamburg
Tallinn
Rhein-Neckar/Stuttgart
Bergen
Berlin
Rhein-Ruhr
Sachsen
Uppsala
Rhein-Main
Riga
Copenhagen
Umeå
Market attractiveness ranking score – Including short term factors

i.e.. economic sentiments

Слайд 11
Agreed current situation at EMG meeting
08/06/2017


Construction cost (cost/m2)
Accumulated

Agreed current situation at EMG meeting08/06/2017Construction cost (cost/m2)Accumulated production volume in

production volume in same platform
Sweden
Norway
Finland
Denmark
St Petersburg

Single family SE

Germany
Experience curve

Baltics


Слайд 12 Market attractiveness – Data driven strategy process
Strategic ideas
Beyond

Market attractiveness – Data driven strategy processStrategic ideasBeyond 2020What if the crisis comesAgenda08/06/2017

2020
What if the crisis comes
Agenda
08/06/2017


Слайд 13 Beyond 2020 we should accelerate growth
08/06/2017

2016-2020
2021-2025
Mature all markets

Beyond 2020 we should accelerate growth08/06/20172016-20202021-2025Mature all markets for future strengthEstablish

for future strength
Establish Design & Production. procurement
Build brand awareness
Set

the company culture
Ensure a not to wide spread footprint
Grow at certain “sweet spots” e.g.. Germany

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